The latest iPredict update notes:
There has been a change of forecast winner in West Coast-Tasman. For the first time since March, National’s Chris Auchinvole is expected to retain the rugby league loving West Coast-Tasman (55% probability up from 47% last week). This follows media reports of attacks on prominent rugby league supporter Sir Peter Leitch (“The Mad Butcher”) by two Labour MPs.
Now of course we don’t know why this has changed, but O’Connor has been in front since March, so you would think there is some specific event which changed this.
Now what is interesting is that Damien O’Connor is not on the party list. If he does not win West Coast-Tasman, he is out of Parliament. Now what this means for Labour is that they get one extra List MP. And you know what if Labour get around 24% to 25%, Darien Fenton would lose her list seat if Damien O’Connor wins West Coast-Tasman, but will keep her seat if he loses it.
So was her outburst on Facebook just a stupid unthinking outburst, or was it not so stupid after all?
Could this be so? It sounds outrageous, but sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. And there is one dynamic that D'HF'F has missed; prior to becoming an MP, Darien Fenton was the National Secretary of the Service and Food Workers' Union (SFWU). That means that Ms Fenton was one of those "self-serving unionists" that Damien O'Connor was so scathing about in his April outburst; might this be payback?
Or is the answer far more simple; is David "Happy Feet" Farrar just getting a little excited about the possibility of a fifth Blackadder series? Perhaps he's got a plan so cunning you could stick a tail on it and call it a weasel!!