Wednesday, July 27, 2011

A very significant poll

The Fairfax Media - Research International poll is out, and for context, we'll quote the very last line first:

The Fairfax Media-Research International poll was conducted between July 21 and July 25 and surveyed 1004 eligible voters. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Yes, dear readers. This is the first poll taken wholly since Labour released the details (such as they are, eh Trevor) of its proposed Capital Gains Tax. The "game-changer" as Phil Goff described the tax package is anything but; here's the carnage:

Time is running out for Labour and Phil Goff 17 weeks out from the election as a new Fairfax Media-Research International Poll shows the party staring down the barrel at its worst result in 15 years.

National continues its extraordinary run of popularity in today's poll, recording 56 per cent support – enough to comfortably govern alone if the results were repeated on election night in November.

Labour is on 29 per cent support – within a whisker of its worst result under MMP in 1996, when it won just 28.19 per cent of the vote.

The results will be a blow to Labour, which was pinning its hopes on a proposal for a capital gains tax on investment properties proving a game-changer in the election campaign. But on today's poll – the first since Labour released the details of its tax package – it appears to have had no impact or may even have weakened the party's support.

On those figures, Labour would lose five of its sitting MPs, including three of its rising stars, Stuart Nash, Kelvin Davis and Carmel Sepuloni.

The damage would be worse if it were not for five Labour MPs retiring at the next election.

Translated into seats in Parliament, National would have a monster voting bloc of 71 MPs.


Oh dear! And the results are no better for Goff on a personal level; read on:

It shows that Mr Key remains hugely popular with voters, recording 53 per cent support as preferred prime minister over just 6 per cent who prefer Mr Goff.

Labour is taking the results on the chin. Mr Goff was unwell last night, but a spokesman said it was clear that Labour needed to "get out and sell our alternative vision" of keeping the country's assets and making everyone pay their fair share of tax.

But of big concern to Labour is the party's continuing failure to woo back female voters who have deserted Labour for National under Mr Key.

With Helen Clark as Labour leader, female voters were the party's secret weapon but National now polls as strongly among female voters as it does among males.


The message is clear from this poll; it doesn't matter how much MP's and activists "get out and sell our alternative vision"; the public isn't listening. No-one wants to hear what Labour has to say; the phone is, as they say in the classics, off the hook.

This poll will be a huge b;ow to all those who were expecting a bounce for Labour. Last week's Roy Morgan poll gave them a glimmer of hope, but Fairfax's post-tax announcement poll was well and truly dashed those hopes.

Where to now? Does Labour accept that defeat is inevitable, and try to limit the damage under Phil Goff, or will this be the poll that leads to a change in the leadership? We guess that the answer to that question lies with the likes of Stuart Nash, Kelvin Davis and Carmel Sepuloni, who on these numbers will be joining the job queue in December.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why does Labour continue to twitch? It is well and truly dead! If Sepuloni is a rising star then Labour is truly knackered.

Cadwallader

PM of NZ said...

Soon the Margin of Error will be the biggest figure on the left.

Quinton Hogg said...

Cadwallader, my thoughts too.
I see Mr Goff was unwell last night. So would I be if I were in his position!

Inventory2 said...

@ Quinton; I refrained from mentioning the reference to Goff's ill-health (get well soon Phil!) lest it give someone in particular an angle to attack, and take the debate off-topic.

This really is a shocker of a poll for Labour though.

pdm said...

Has Goff's illness been caused by the number of knives stuck between his shoulder blades - do you think?

pdm said...

One of the other good thing is the Greens at 6% - slidingg closer to oblivion below 5%.

Obviously the skill shown by Red Russel in the debating chamber is not recognised by Greenies among the public. These people perhaps now realise that to be effective you have to be in Government and there is no chance of that for the Greens in the forseeable future.

Anonymous said...

Labour=history.
Winston First=history.
Greens=marginal.

alex Masterley said...

I2,
You are right about the health reference. It was churlish and opportunistic.
Soon the greens will be the official opposition!
I suspect there will be murmerings of discontent in the Labor caucus room!

smttc said...

I notice your mate Robert Guyton is a bit quiet these days.

Inventory2 said...

I said this to him the other night smttc:

You reap what you sow Robert. You may be asking genuine questions tonight, but of late you have been making a lot of snide comments and inane responses. Even your first contribution to this thread ("I'm thunderstruck!") deliberately ignores that my post began and ended with expressions of horror and regret.

But James from Mydeology has rightly IMHO criticized The Standard. It is THEY who have tried to make political capital out of a tragedy by deliberately miqreporting Key. That sucks, and if you do not share that view, your time tonight might be better spent elsewhere.

July 23, 2011 8:10 PM


I think he may have taken it personally. He's not been banned; staying away has been his call, not mine.

Anonymous said...

Very good decisions all round then.

jabba said...

I pointed out on bObby G's site that the killer was not only a right winger BUT also an organic farmer and it put the poor bugger in a spin. All I did was make this observation and he had the bare faced cheek to call MY posting as "You argument, jabba, is purile" .. well he should know was a purile argument is I guess.

Anonymous said...

I am not missing Guyton.

Cadwallader

Anonymous said...

3 comments here are about the greens and 5 are about that idiot guyton - are you people obsessed or what?
Here is something from kiwiblog to take your mind of them

Any youth camp run by a particular organisation is going to exert influence on the participants. Only total coercive immersion amounts to cultism or brainwashing in my opinion. Tell you what I find a bit spooky though; bowing heads and saying in unison:

I believe in one God,
the Father Almighty,
maker of heaven and earth,
and of all things visible and invisible;

And in one Lord Jesus Christ,
the only begotten Son of God,
begotten of his Father before all worlds,
God of God, Light of Light,
very God of very God,
begotten, not made,
being of one substance with the Father;
by whom all things were made;
who for us men and for our salvation
came down from heaven,
and was incarnate by the Holy Ghost
of the Virgin Mary, bla bla bla…….