The Fairfax Media-Research International poll was conducted between July 21 and July 25 and surveyed 1004 eligible voters. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Yes, dear readers. This is the first poll taken wholly since Labour released the details (such as they are, eh Trevor) of its proposed Capital Gains Tax. The "game-changer" as Phil Goff described the tax package is anything but; here's the carnage:
Time is running out for Labour and Phil Goff 17 weeks out from the election as a new Fairfax Media-Research International Poll shows the party staring down the barrel at its worst result in 15 years.
National continues its extraordinary run of popularity in today's poll, recording 56 per cent support – enough to comfortably govern alone if the results were repeated on election night in November.
Labour is on 29 per cent support – within a whisker of its worst result under MMP in 1996, when it won just 28.19 per cent of the vote.
The results will be a blow to Labour, which was pinning its hopes on a proposal for a capital gains tax on investment properties proving a game-changer in the election campaign. But on today's poll – the first since Labour released the details of its tax package – it appears to have had no impact or may even have weakened the party's support.
On those figures, Labour would lose five of its sitting MPs, including three of its rising stars, Stuart Nash, Kelvin Davis and Carmel Sepuloni.
The damage would be worse if it were not for five Labour MPs retiring at the next election.
Translated into seats in Parliament, National would have a monster voting bloc of 71 MPs.
Oh dear! And the results are no better for Goff on a personal level; read on:
It shows that Mr Key remains hugely popular with voters, recording 53 per cent support as preferred prime minister over just 6 per cent who prefer Mr Goff.
Labour is taking the results on the chin. Mr Goff was unwell last night, but a spokesman said it was clear that Labour needed to "get out and sell our alternative vision" of keeping the country's assets and making everyone pay their fair share of tax.
But of big concern to Labour is the party's continuing failure to woo back female voters who have deserted Labour for National under Mr Key.
With Helen Clark as Labour leader, female voters were the party's secret weapon but National now polls as strongly among female voters as it does among males.
The message is clear from this poll; it doesn't matter how much MP's and activists "get out and sell our alternative vision"; the public isn't listening. No-one wants to hear what Labour has to say; the phone is, as they say in the classics, off the hook.
This poll will be a huge b;ow to all those who were expecting a bounce for Labour. Last week's Roy Morgan poll gave them a glimmer of hope, but Fairfax's post-tax announcement poll was well and truly dashed those hopes.
Where to now? Does Labour accept that defeat is inevitable, and try to limit the damage under Phil Goff, or will this be the poll that leads to a change in the leadership? We guess that the answer to that question lies with the likes of Stuart Nash, Kelvin Davis and Carmel Sepuloni, who on these numbers will be joining the job queue in December.