Getting noticed

Peter Dunne seems to have been Revenue Minister forever, irrespective of who governs. And to give him his due, he does a pretty good job with one of the most important yet least glamorous portfolios.

But there must be an election looming; Peter Dunne has emerged from the shadows, as Andrea Vance blogs at Stuff:

Someone get Peter Dunne a time machine and put him out of his misery. The poor man is trying to recreate 2002 with "edgy" antics such video-blogging, planking live on telly and drawing attention to his dead-possum hair.

The Ohariu MP is clearly pining for United Future's glory days - when the party won eight seats at the 2002 election. (The year that brought us Gordon Copeland.)

Since then he's seen backing for his party in his home patch drop from 12,000 to 1007, with Labour's Charles Chauvel hot on his heels.

A star turn on a televised leaders' debate worked for him back then - the TVNZ worm liked his comments on family values.

But has common sense deserted him in his desperation for airtime? Or with ACT and the Maori party looking increasingly unstable, is Dunne just trying to remind us he's still around?

His stunts might be wacky but out of that lot United Future could be viewed as the most sensible partner for the Government.

Some people regard Dunne as some form of political prostitute. We're a little bit more charitable than that. We reckon that he's got MMP pretty well sussed, and has set himself up as the ultimate centreist, able to work with parties either to the left or the rught of him, as long as they aren't too far too the right or the left. And let's not forget that Dunne first saw ministerial action in the days of Rogernomics; he's cut from the same cloth as Phil Goff.

Not any more though; read on:

He's picking National to win in November. In a mirror image of his strategy in 2002, he's appealing to potential defectors from the party that is going to lose (Labour) and positioning himself as a moderate influence on the government (National) - as well as those who don't want to see National beholden to either the ACT or Maori party.

At the moment United Future is polling less than ACT, the Maori party and even his old nemesis Winston Peters.

So will the worm turn - or is the Revenue Minister just a planker whose time is up?

This time around, Peter Dunne has put all his eggs in one basket. In dissing Phil Goff, he's clearly banking on National being returned. That would likely as not see him keep the role of Revenue Minister, which is not the most sought-after executive role!

The electoral contest in Ohariu will be an very interesting one in November. Like Epsom, it's going to be pivotal to the make-up of the Parliament. Neither Dunne nor National will want to see Labour's Charles Chauvel win the seat, so Katrina Shanks may become National's sacrificial lamb; a tight three-way contest could see the end to Peter Dunne's political career.

Dunne is, if nothing else, a survivor. Making light of his coiffured hair and planking at the Backbencher is not the way one would normally expect the man in charge of the tax system to behave, but elections do funny things to people. We certainly wouldn't bet against Peter Dunne increasing his Ohariu majority come 26 November.