Over the next week the major TV and newspaper political polls will come out. And for Helen Clark this is now make or break on the back of the secret tapes saga.The last round of polls across all media had Labour closing the gap on National. In a couple of those polls, the gap narrowed significantly.
So Labour is bracing itself. It desperately needs some good news. It's praying and hoping the 'secret tapes' saga dents National's support. Some National MPs told me earlier this week that they expect the party to take a hit in the polls. One very senior National MP told me he expected the party to lose up to 5 points.
But as the week has progressed I'm not sure so sure about that.
Now that's very interesting. But it was his next two paragraphs that caught my attention:
So much of the story has focused on the ethics of the secret taping. And National was quick to nail Labour and Helen Clark to the secret recorder. Key has no proof of course - but he didn't have to. It was a bit of a dog whistle - but it may have worked. I reckon National might just hold up in the polls due to be released over the next 10 days.
Labour got its internal polling in this week. It's gone very quiet. There's been no suggestion from Clark's office that this has hurt National.
You see, Mr Garner seems to have forgotten that HE was the TV Political Editor who broke the story. That HE was the Political Editor who kept the story going over five nights with serial leaks. Which suggests to me that not only does Duncan Garner know the identity of the taper and the leaker (who may not necessarily be one and the same), but that Duncan Garner also knows the motivation behind them, and maybe even who authorised them.
And is the 3News poll due out tomorrow? I'm not sure, but if it is, you'd expect that Duncan Garner would already know its contents - which makes this blog post even more fascinating, especially in light of Garner's closing paragraph
So Labour might not do as well out of this as it had hoped. Helen Clark was hoping the 'secret tapes' would be a turning point in Labour's fortunes. If it's not, what's her plan now? Does she have one? Labour's told people how dangerous the Nats are. But perhaps no one's been listening.
12 comments:
Labour's told people how dangerous the Nats are
Perhaps people are sick of being told lies by Clark and her band of has-beens
I had forgotten that Garner broke the story and kept it going. That being so then this:-
"Helen Clark was hoping the 'secret tapes' would be a turning point in Labour's fortunes. If it's not, what's her plan now?' "
must be as close as he could get to pinning the saga on Clark.
I2, I think you might be right about Garner's *informed* comments on the poll and the need for a very clever plan if there hasn't been any electoral fallout for National.
As for Adolf's creative reading of Garner's comment, I have no doubt that, *after* the story broke Clark would have thought that it would be a turning point.
But even if the polls don't close this week, the story might still have a long-term impact. Certainly, National can't afford anymore slips of the lips.
It won't work jafapete.
Your comment looks like a council worker hosing down the blood and sweeping up broken glass after a bad auto crash.
It will be difficult to rewrite what is happening in the polls, and what is slowly dawning on the voter.
Face it, Helen's task is very like that of a coach for a crap team, behind on the board and full time coming closer.
Fans slowly drift away.
Well said David - reminds me of the oft-quoted comment from legendary American Fotball coach ince Lombardi who said "There are only two kinds of coached. Those who have been sacked, and those who are waiting to be sacked."
Well David, let's just hope that there's another major loose-lipped incident to test my assertion!
JP - do you mean like Phil Goff's "we're gonna lose" confession on Alt TV?
It wouldn't surprise me if there was some indiscretion committed by John Key.
But it would be minor and of no significance, much as the Liarbore might beat it up.
Bill English and his eventually sell Kiwibank statement was purely in line in National policy, both in their opposition to setting up the bank in the first place, and in the party not ruling out any privatisations in their first term.
The Lockwood Smith comments just highlighted National know knows it has to listen to the people and will concult with them before doing anything radical.
There will be no hidden agendas like we have seen from Liarbore.
As for Nick Smith, I cannot remember what he actually said, so it was obviously of no importance either.
Yes, National have to keep their guard up, but people don't care. They probably exect a rightward shift from National soemtime after the election.
They probably support the change of direction this would bring.
They just want to see the back of Liarbore!
pdq
i mean ruling our privatisations in their first term.
"i mean ruling out privatisations in their first term."
Hehehe... what do you know that we don't?
JP - Homepaddock is probably the one to address that question to. After all, she is on the committee ranking National's list. But don't even think of using a recording device lol
Actually JP, it might be an unfortunate piece of phrasing by Garner, but as written, it looked immediately to me like a direct implication that the taping was a planned tactical move by Clark. Neither would surprise me, but given the nature of the campaign Labour are running, and their tactics to date, commissioning (however indirectly) a mole in the Nat's conference would seem a natural thing to expect them to do.
And of course, under the philosphic thinking known as "Trotterism", ascribed to most of the left, there is no crime or unethical behaviour possible whilst striving to deny National the treasury benches. Thus theft was justified at the last election, what's a little unethical taping if the results are worth it ?
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